Direct .au Domain Dec 2022 Forecast

Following up on the .nz and .uk direct registration trends article on domainer.

After a few months of .au Direct registrations we can start to run some forecasts as to what will happen here with .au direct registrations.

Pre-covid the growth of the .com.au space was tapering down, the space only increased by 24,373 from Dec 2018 to Dec 2019. The lowest yearly growth recorded since the launch of .com.au.

Covid definitely shook the online space and generate a new surge in domain name registrations, where yearly growth of .com.au were impressive:

Dec 2019 to Dec 2020 = 79,133
Dec 2020 to Dec 2021 = 159,646
Dec 2021 to May 2022 = 31,330

The numbers are new registrations less domains not renewed, so net growth of the .com.au name space.

We can see that in 2022 the growth numbers are once again tapering off and we anticipate approx 60,000 growth in .com registrations for the full year of 2022 Jan to Dec. (Worked out by new .com.au domain registrations/creates that is trending to be around 500,000, less deleted domains trending to be around 440,000 = 60,000 net gain.

500,000 .com.au new domains registered in a year may correlate to 165,000 new .au domain registrations based on the current 1/3 adoption rate that auDA have released…

So what does this all mean for direct .au numbers, we know that there will be more than 165,000 .au registrations… half way into the year, we are already at 164,513….

Direct registration numbers to date:
Mar 2022 = 78,957
Apr 2022 = 127,724
May 2022 = 152,184
Jun 2022 = 170,650 estimate (Edit Actual 172,413 as at 30 June 2022)


The big month is going to be Sep 2022 which is when all the contested names tokens expire, where many contested names have yet to be claimed. Those that are not claimed will become available to registrar on a first come first serve basis… Drop domain catcher will be taking orders to secure such names for clients. A list of such names will be provided in advance by Drop.

So what do we think the numbers of direct au are going to be?
Our forecast for end of Dec 2022 is most likely to be around 250,000.
By end of Sep 2022 we will have a better idea of uptake. If things go really well for .au we could see well over 250,000 registrations and closer to 275,000.

The above plot has these values for direct au registrations:
250,000 Dec 2022 forecast
350,000 Dec 2023 forecast

Once again a very conservative number as we can only assume that there will be a % of direct registrations registered in the 1st year that are not renewed in 2023. This renewal rate is unknown and hard to predict.

So what do you think the direct numbers will be by end of Dec 2022 and Dec 2023?