With the recent launch of Direct .au domain names, many in the industry have stated that both the direct .uk and .nz releases were a failure. So we wanted to check the actual numbers and explain the differences with .uk, .nz and .au as each one has unique issues, policies and roll out strategies.
.uk Direct Registrations
.uk direct was launched in June 2014
Allocation was given to the .co.uk holders and they were given grandfather rights for 5 years to claim their .uk domain that matched their .co.uk domain.
Below is a graph of all *.uk domain extensions over time since Dec 1999.
Third Level includes all *.uk extensions including: .co.uk me.uk net.uk org.uk etc…
Second Level only includes direct .uk
From the data we can see some interesting results that are based on Registrar based strategies adopted, that generate huge spikes on .uk registrations:
In Oct 2017 Registrars ran an offering where they “gave” the .uk domain to their .co.uk clients for free. Around 1.4 million .uk domains were given away for free. Which is the 1st spike of .uk registrations. The registrants were given the .uk for free for the 1st year and the Registrant then had to pay to keep it there after.
The next spike in registrations was in Jun 2019 which is when the 5 year grandfather rights expired and 1.2 million direct .uk domains were registered in a single month.
By Jan 2020 the vast majority of the free registrations expired and by Aug 2020 a further batch of names were not renewed, leaving around 1.3 million direct .uk registered. Which is a number that has remained steady since Sep 2020:
1,336,797 Sep 2020 .uk domains registered
1,364,550 Feb 2022 .uk domains registered
Marginal growth of 27,753 not even 1% but is 12.3% of all UK domains registered or 14% when compared against just the Third level domains.
Third level registrations number hit rock bottom in Feb 2020 down to 9,471,248 which we can see the launch of .uk had a direct result of reducing the .co.uk numbers name space by cannibalizing the normal growth and adoption of .co.uk domains.
Since Feb 2020 we see the resumption of growth of the .co.uk space
9,471,248 Feb 2020 third level domains registered
9,738,031 Feb 2022 third level domains registered
Growth of 266,783 domains in 2 years
.nz Direct Registrations
.nz direct was launched in September 2014
30 September 2014 to 30 March 2015 was a sunrise period for existing registrants to claim their .nz rights, similar to the process that .au has used. Means that any existing registrants of a third level domain extension could claim their right which locked the .nz domain if contested by more than one party. To this day there are still a number of .nz domains in contested status and unresolved with no end in sight.
Below is a graph of all *.nz domain extensions over time since Dec 1996.
Third Level includes all *.nz extensions including: .co.nz net.nz org.nz kiwi.nz etc…
Second Level only includes direct .nz
Unlike in UK, there are no unusual spikes in registrations as they were not given away for free.
In NZ the domain growth started to tapper off in 2013 what seemed like the normal curve of growth starting to reach the top of the market cap.
In Sep 2014 .nz was launched and had an instant impact on growth where .nz now accounts for 25.6% of the name space and 28.5% when compared to just .co.nz domains.
As at Dec 2021
150,691 .nz
529,227 .co.nz
588,188 all third level domains including .co.nz
A rather interesting data point is that registrations of .net.nz have dropped 34.2% since the launch of .nz, clearly showing that this extension is on its way out with a 5% drop in numbers in recent years.
28,807 in Dec 2014 down to:
18,971 in Dec 2022
Based on these figures I would say that the launch of .nz did increase the market size of *.nz domain registration numbers by over 20% which is a decent amount.
What however is not known is what % of the 150,691 .nz direct registrations are by the same Registrants that also have the .co.nz as this would demonstrate the use and adoption of .nz or if the vast majority are purely defensive registrations made by the .co.nz holders. (If anyone has clear stats on this data point please let us know)
.au Direct Registrations
.au direct was launched in March 2022
Similar how .nz was launched, existing *.au registrants have 6 months to claim their .au domains and will be instantly allocated if there are no contested rights. Meaning that they are the only one with a claim, whereas if multiple extensions such as .com.au, .net.au, .org.au etc also have the same rights to claim the .au domain, then the domain can be locked until the parties work it out amongst them selves.
Below is a graph of all *.au domain extensions over time since Jun 2002.
Third Level includes all *.au extensions including: com.au, net.au, org.au, asn.au, id.au
Second Level only includes direct .au (currently blank as launched in 2022)
It will be interesting to see what happens with direct .au domain name registrations, what % will be purely defensive registrations and what % will be direct use.
The AU space has also seen the registration numbers tapper off as they reach the natural demand caps with a Covid induced growth between 2020 and 2021.
It is important to note that the main difference with .au and the UK and NZ direct domains is that unlike in those countries a Registrant did not need to have a Business to register their .co.uk or .co.nz domains like is required here in Australia. To register a com.au you needed either an ACN/ABN/TM which limited the registrations to Businesses only and individuals were only given the option to register a .id.au which never took off.
Just like in NZ we can see the registration numbers of .net.au having a steady decline since Dec 2014 where at the peak were:
322,687 .net.au domains registered Dec 2014
216,336 .net.au domains registered Dec 2021
A drop of 33%, and we can assume with the launch of .au that the drop will be even greater.
We hope to update the .au graph as soon as we receive some stat updates from auDA.
So the big question is, what do you think will happen in AU?
Love the graphs!
The massively oversimplified “business case” for .au back in 2015 was based around the following perception of demand.
1) Retail registrars reported a 33% cart abandonment when asking for an ABN
2) Shorter domains are desirable and even useful when used with a .com.au (for twitter etc) and would be more popular than the .net.au extension.
So predictions from me.
a) 30% of new .au creates would be to individuals (no ABN)
b) > 350,000 .au’s with priority rights registered within 6 months (so > 14% of the tokens get allocated making .au 2x as popular as the .net.au extension).
c) .net.au’s halve in number over the next 18 months
d) .id.au return to the pre-au rush numbers by shrinking back to the 9,000 – 10,000 registrations bracket.
e) .com.au growth returns to pre-covid bump slow growth of 0.5 – 1% per annum for 5 years and then starts to grow again in the 2 – 3% per annum rate as people realise how much trust the .com.au has for commerce.
f) .au gets used more and more for short marketing campaigns, promotions, events but the real exchange of money (for tickets etc) still happens on the .com.au site. Eventually it grows to be about 25% of the namespace after 10 years and is quite well recognised but still not 100% trusted.
12,942 .id.au domains registered at the end of Dec 2021
The Register followed Nominet and the UK saga very well.
A disaster.
Click each link for the stories and learn
The Register
.nz direct names are near worthless.
.uk direct names rarely sell for much and most are now registered just to park, PPC Monetise and try to resell.
Very few direct .uk or direct .nz show up in Google search results and rarely if ever in the top first page results.
.id.au and .net.au will be more worthless, more useless and completely dead in 5 years.
Only a fool would register them and renewal them after the direct .au came in.
Well done auDA, Afilias and Registrars. Shot yourselves in the foot with $ millions spent by everyone to do it.
.com, .co.nz, .co.uk, .com.au, .co.sg, .co.my etc values are increasing … why because of all other other 2000 crap domain name extension in the world now.
Google told old auDA Registry wholesale provider Ausregistry and Adrian Kinderis before auDA’s new Registry wholesaler Afilias their false and misleading claims had been bullshit.
https://www.seroundtable.com/google-new-tld-myth-14878.html
“Sorry, but that’s just not true, and as an engineer in the search quality team at Google, I feel the need to debunk this misconception.
Google has a lot of experience in returning relevant web pages, regardless of the top-level domain (TLD).
Google will attempt to rank new TLDs appropriately, but I don’t expect a new TLD to get any kind of initial preference over .com, and I wouldn’t bet on that happening in the long-term either.
If you want to register an entirely new TLD for other reasons, that’s your choice, but you shouldn’t register a TLD in the mistaken belief that you’ll get some sort of boost in search engine rankings.”
Never forget auDA does not care about you or domain name consumers and existing registrants or if they have created a mess. They care about their own cushy jobs, and very nice KPI bonuses they pay themselves.
With policy ..The more mess they create the more they are needed…. again more $$$ for themselves
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/disneyland-dot-com-police-asked-to-probe-spending-at-web-agency-20180416-p4z9yd.html
https://www2.cio.com.au/article/640242/former-director-took-family-disneyland-auda-dollar/
https://thenewdaily.com.au/life/tech/2018/04/25/domain-name-auda-dispute/